At 7:10 PM ET, baseball fans will be treated to an interleague showdown as the San Diego Padres face off against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field. Positioned as the money line favorites at -139, the Guardians, leading the AL Central with a record of 58-37, are geared up to host the Padres, who sit at 50-49 and rank third in the NL West, with odds standing at +118.
Matchup Preview
On the mound for the Padres will be Matt Waldron, who has demonstrated potential despite a rocky season. With 19 starts under his belt, Waldron holds a 5-8 record and a 3.71 ERA. Opponents have managed a .225 batting average against him, and he sports a WHIP of 1.17. Waldron’s last outing on July 12th saw a less-than-stellar performance, where he surrendered four earned runs.
Countering Waldron will be the Guardians' Tanner Bibee, a pitcher who has shown remarkable promise this season. Bibee boasts a 7-4 record accompanied by a 3.77 ERA. Over his 19 starts, he has maintained a WHIP of 1.12 and averaged 10.54 strikeouts per nine innings, totaling 123 strikeouts. Despite giving up four earned runs in his last outing against the Tigers, Bibee had previously secured two consecutive wins and has delivered seven quality starts this season.
Recent Form
The Padres enter this game off the heels of a 6-3 loss to the Atlanta Braves. Randy Vasquez, who started and took the loss for the Padres, pitched five innings, conceding four runs on four hits. The Padres’ bullpen subsequently allowed two more runs in the eighth inning, solidifying their defeat. This loss added to their recent struggles, having dropped two out of their last three games against the Braves. Their overall record as underdogs this season stands at 21-20, and they've lost their last two games in this role.
On the road, the Padres have a respectable record of 24-21. However, they currently trail the Dodgers by seven games in the NL West and have posted a 15-17 record in divisional games.
The Guardians, meanwhile, haven't been impervious to struggles either, with a 1-4 record in their last five home games and a 4-6 record in their previous ten games. In their recent series against the Rays, the Guardians concluded with a 2-0 loss. Notably, Ben Lively struck out the side in the first inning of their last game but later gave up two runs in the third inning.
Offensive Power
Offensively, the Guardians average 4.8 runs per game and maintain a .243 team batting average—a figure that ranks them 11th in MLB. They also sit 10th in the league in home runs. José Ramírez and Josh Naylor have been key contributors, with Ramírez ranking second in the league with 77 RBIs and boasting 23 home runs, while Naylor has amassed 70 RBIs. Ramírez is currently batting .271 on the season.
For the Padres, Jurickson Profar and Fernando Tatis Jr. are tied for the team lead with 14 home runs each, with Profar also leading in RBIs at 59. Profar has been on a hot streak, hitting 7/22 in his last seven games. Manny Machado, on a three-game hitting streak, has been consistent, though his batting average over the past week is .231.
Game Projections
The over/under line for this game is set at 7.5 runs. On average, Cleveland games generate 8.7 runs, while Padres games average 8.9 runs per game. With 58.6% of Padres games and 66.3% of Guardians games going over this line for the season, bettors might anticipate a high-scoring affair.
Projections for the game forecast a 6-5 victory in favor of the Guardians, with both teams expected to tally nine hits apiece. Individually, Tanner Bibee is projected to finish with six strikeouts, while Matt Waldron is expected to notch five. Bibee is also anticipated to yield fewer earned runs than Waldron, potentially tilting the scales in Cleveland’s favor.
As the Padres and Guardians prepare to clash, fans can expect an exciting duel both on the mound and at the plate, with these two competitive teams looking to gain a much-needed win.