Building a championship-winning fantasy basketball team is reliant on strategy, knowledge, and calculated risk-taking. For seasoned players and newcomers alike, understanding player performance and reliability is crucial.
Excelling Beyond Top Picks
The backbone of any fantasy basketball team lies in its consistent producers, especially those drafted beyond the first few picks. Joel Embiid stands out with a projected average of over 60 fantasy points per game, mirroring last season's impressive 61-point average. However, fantasy managers must account for Embiid's durability. He's never played more than 68 games in a season, and last year, he appeared in only 39 matchups.
On the flip side, Nikola Jokic remains a stalwart, logging 79 games last season. Jokic has maintained an enviable record, never playing fewer than 69 games in his career, making him a safer bet for fantasy teams.
Veteran Reliability and Risks
The aging yet remarkably resilient LeBron James played 71 games last season, a solid number for the 40-year-old entering his 21st NBA season. In contrast, Anthony Davis, despite his participation in 76 games last season, has averaged just 44 games over the previous three seasons. Davis has managed to play over 70 games in consecutive seasons only once in his 12-year career, highlighting a potential risk for fantasy managers banking on his health.
Younger Stars with Caveats
Ja Morant, now 25, has demonstrated his prowess with averages of 26.7 points, 7.5 assists, and 5.8 rebounds per game over the past three seasons. Yet, last season's tally of only 9 games due to suspension and injury significantly impacted his availability. Kevin Durant, entering his 18th NBA season at age 36, brings a wealth of experience. Durant played 75 games last season, showing that he still has a lot left in the tank for fantasy players to capitalize on.
Irving, Zion, and Kawhi: High Risk, High Reward
Kyrie Irving's game is poetry in motion, evidenced by his impressive averages of 26.7 points on nearly 50% shooting, including 39.9% from three-point range, and an astounding 91.2% from the free-throw line over the past five seasons. However, Irving's reliability is a major question mark; he has averaged just 44.2 games per season during that span. Irving ranked 22nd in fantasy points per game last season but slipped to 47th in total fantasy points due to his limited availability.
Zion Williamson presents another intriguing yet risky option. Between the 2020-21 and 2022-23 seasons, he averaged 26.7 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game but played only 90 of a possible 236 regular season games. Last season was a career-best for Williamson, as he played 70 games and showcased his dominance with a late-season stretch averaging 27.1 points over 10 games.
Kawhi Leonard: An Enigma
Kawhi Leonard, despite finishing with the 27th-most fantasy points in the league last season over 68 games, missed 12 of the Clippers' last 14 games, including the playoffs, due to persistent knee issues. His health remains a significant concern and adds an element of unpredictability to his fantasy value.
Ultimately, crafting a championship-winning fantasy team requires a nuanced approach, balancing the high-ceiling potential of players like Embiid, Irving, and Williamson with the steadiness offered by Jokic and Durant. Navigating the complexities of player reliability and projected performance is the essence of a winning strategy in the world of fantasy basketball.